Economic Context
Monetary policy, fiscal health, global spillovers, and market context in one view.
Macro Regime
Mixed signals — selectivity rewarded
Some conditions support bonds while others introduce risk. Pricing discipline and security selection matter more than direction bets.
Monetary Policy
Central Bank Rate history — each dot is an MPC decision date.
Current CBR
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Inflation (CPI)
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Real rate (CBR − CPI)
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Negative — inflation is eroding real returns. Assess whether yield compensates for the shortfall.
Latest MPC sentiment
Neutral
Policy is in a holding pattern. Bond prices are anchored by carry rather than rate-move expectations.
What the market expects of inflation
Survey, not measurementCBK surveys 400 firms before each MPC meeting — 37 commercial banks, 14 microfinance banks, and non-bank businesses across eight towns. These are their expectations, gathered 2026-07-21. They are opinions about the future, and the two groups disagree.
| Horizon | Banks expect | Non-bank firms expect | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next 3 months | 6.70% | 6.13% | 0.57pp |
| Next 1 year | 6.24% | 5.05% | 1.19pp |
| Next 2 years | 5.90% | 4.65% | 1.25pp |
| Next 5 years | 5.42% | 4.29% | 1.13pp |
Global Spillovers
How the global macro environment shapes Kenya's borrowing cost and capital flows.
USD/KES
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KES is relatively contained. Dollar-denominated obligations are at manageable shilling cost.
Market Context
Yield curve — current bonds by tenor
MPC Calendar
Upcoming policy meetings — rate decisions move the entire yield curve.